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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrend on wage data is clearly downward and very encouraging, says Goldman's HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's confidence in the trend on wage data, expectations for the Federal Reserve, and more.
Persons: Goldman's Hatzius Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve
Washington CNN —Americans haven’t felt any better about the economy these past few months, but they haven’t felt any worse either. The Federal Reserve cares whether or not Americans have faith that inflation will eventually return to levels they’re used to. Consumer prices were 3.5% higher in March from a year earlier, a much bigger increase than February’s 3.2% and above what economists were forecasting. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, also above expectations. The economy is coming into focusEveryday Americans, on the other hand, haven’t fretted about progress on inflation potentially stalling.
Persons: haven’t, , Joanne Hsu, ” Oren Klachkin, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, , ” Goldman Sachs’s, Jan Hatzius, they’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, Nationwide, CPI, Bank of America, CNN Locations: Pennsylvania, Scranton , Pennsylvania
Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.
Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, , Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, , Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, , Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States
The Fed is going to cut interest rates just two times in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank lowered its rate cut forecast from three to two following a hot March inflation report. "We are pushing back our forecast of the first rate cut from June to July," Goldman Sachs said. Still, following the hot CPI report, Hatzius bumped his expectations for the March PCE report. AdvertisementPart of Goldman's confidence in just two interest rate cuts this year stems from the fact that the Federal Reserve's most recent dot plot showed a central bank that was almost evenly split between two or three interest rate cuts this year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Dow Jones, Investors, Federal
Stock futures dipped as Wall Street looked ahead to a second key inflation report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 60 points, or about 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures also lost 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led Wednesday's losses, tumbling 1.09%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.95%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the session in negative territory, with real estate bearing the brunt of the selling pressure and posting decline of more than 4%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect wholesale prices to have grown by 0.3% in March, and 0.2% when excluding food and energy.
Persons: Stocks, , Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, CNBC's, Dow Jones, Wells Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Constellation Brands, JPMorgan, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJune rate cut seems less likely after hot CPI print, says Goldman's HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss whether Hatzius was surprised by Wednesday's CPI print, what makes the economist confident that the Federal Reserve will still cut rates twice this year, and more.
Persons: Goldman's Hatzius Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius Organizations: CPI, Federal Reserve
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on Friday said he still expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts, adding that he would be "very surprised" if the U.S. central bank ultimately decided no trims at all were necessary. His comments come shortly after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the latest high-profile official to float the possibility of zero rate cuts before the year's end, if inflation remained sticky. "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said on Thursday during an interview with Pensions & Investments. Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier in the week that it would take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Goldman Sachs' Hatzius said he was bullish on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, I'm, we've Organizations: Reserve, Minneapolis, Pensions, Investments Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs' Hatzius: Next week's CPI report will be more important than the payroll numberJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to react to the latest job reports, why next week's CPI report matters, and more.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: CPI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs chief economist: Strong case for consecutive ECB rate cuts from JuneJan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the outlook for European Central Bank interest rate cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: European Central Bank
AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, , ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States
Despite Trump facing legal issues on multiple fronts, including a federal indictment that alleges he illegally conspired to discount votes in the 2020 election, he appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination once again. Raymond James was listed by Goldman and in Barclays' Trump stock basket, according to the Jan. 30 note. A Trump term could benefit energy giants such as Chevron , but also smaller players such as Devon Energy or coal companies such as Peabody Energy , according to Goldman. Another group of industrial companies could get a piece of government spending from expansion of the Mexico border wall under a second Trump administration. Caterpillar was one of the companies involved previously, according to Goldman.
Persons: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Venu Krishna, Goldman, Wells, Piper Sandler, Raymond James Organizations: Trump, Republican, Barclays, Federal Trade Commission, Boston, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Republicans, Chevron, Devon Energy, Peabody Energy, Steel Dynamics, Broadcom, Caterpillar Locations: China, Cleveland, Mexico
The US housing market faces an inventory shortage, but empty offices don't offer a solution. Goldman Sachs strategists say that offices can't be cheaply or easily converted into residential units. Goldman Sachs Investment Research, CoStar dataIn the same stretch, a combination of high mortgage rates and home prices with limited housing inventory has frozen the US housing market. Residential housing affordability has declined for the last 15 years and hit a historical low in 2022. "Our analysis implies that only 0.8% of US office inventory is currently priced at a level that makes conversion to multifamily housing financially feasible," the bank maintained.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Goldman, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Goldman, San Locations: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle
The US economy will see a surge in growth as more people start to take GLP-1 weight loss drugs. "The main reason we see economic upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs," Goldman Sachs said. The more people that take GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the faster the US economy will grow, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. The bank said in a note on Thursday that US GDP would grow by an extra 1% if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs by 2028. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that could diminish if health outcomes improve," Hatzius said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Eli Lilly, Goldman Organizations: Service, Goldman, Novo Nordisk
Read previewAt the start of 2023, most US economists were bracing for a recession. An economics professor at St Mary’s University, a tiny Roman Catholic college in San Antonio, Texas, bucked the trend. Last January, Belinda Román told surveyors from The Wall Street Journal that she was expecting the economy to have a strong 2023. No recession, low unemploymentIn January 2023, Román locked in her forecast for the year, telling the WSJ that she was expecting the US’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to expand by 2.8%. 2024 predictionsMany forecasters are now bullish on the US economy off the back of a stellar 2023 — and Román is no exception.
Persons: , Belinda Román, Román, That's, Taylor Swift, , , who’s, St Mary’s, we’ve, ” Román, Goldman Sachs ’ Jan Hatzius, London —, I’d, there’s Organizations: Service, St Mary’s University, Roman Catholic, Wall Street Journal, Business, Bank of America, JPMorgan, The Commerce Department, St, American Chamber of Commerce Locations: San Antonio , Texas, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCore PCE inflation is on its way to Fed's 2% goal, says Goldman Sachs' Jan HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss inflation and the changing rate cut narrative.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Jan Hatzius
Read previewClaudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, believes the US economy will likely avoid a downturn this year. We solved the labor shortage by getting more labor," Sahm said. "The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap. This has been driven by two factors: above-trend immigration growth and greater foreign-born labor force participation," said Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, in an August 2023 client note. "Growth in the foreign-born labor force has accelerated by 50k to 160k per month this year, lifted by a surging foreign-born labor force participation rate," Hatzius added.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, doesn't, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, National Bureau of Economic, US, Labor, Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: flatlining
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is not as strong as payroll number suggests, says Goldman Sachs' Jan HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the reaction to Friday's jobs report, if the hours worked data offsets the data in wage growth, and the economist's outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Jan Hatzius Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve
Goldman Sachs doesn't expect an inflation spike in the US fueled by turmoil in the Red Sea. To be sure, Red Sea disruptions have caused freight costs to soar as much as 350%. AdvertisementShipping disruptions in the Red Sea have caused freight costs to spike, but the impact on inflation will remain muted, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchHowever, they maintained that goods inflation still won't see a meaningful uptick for two reasons. "Under reasonable pass-through assumptions, a 100% increase in the cost of sea freight therefore only raises core goods inflation by around 0.4pp and overall core inflation by around 0.1pp," the Goldman strategists said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Shipping, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Locations: Red, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Suez, Asia, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, 0.4pp, 0.1pp
Several large investment firms are writing off a recession in the US in 2024 as growth holds up and inflation steadily declines, but T. Rowe Price thinks that optimism may be misplaced. While T. Rowe Price doesn't have an official call on the economy, the brightest minds at the $1.4 trillion Baltimore-based firm urged investors to be cautious at a mid-November conference. However, T. Rowe Price is skeptical that the Fed will end its fight against inflation anytime soon. T. Rowe Price found that through October, those names rose 53.2% compared to a 1.2% year-to-date return for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Dom Rizzo, a portfolio manager of global technology equity strategy at T. Rowe Price, agreed that the Magnificent 7's momentum won't stop just because the group is pricey.
Persons: Rowe Price, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Rowe Price doesn't, We're, Tim Murray, Rowe Price's, Murray, We've, Rowe, Uruci, he's, it's, Tesla, let's, Dom Rizzo, Rizzo, septet, Santa, He's Organizations: Citi, UBS Global Wealth Management, Business, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: Baltimore, Santa Clara
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
Goldman Sachs thinks the only notable chance of a recession in 2024 is if something really unusual happens. Goldman is more sanguine than much of Wall Street on recession chances, though few see a sharp downturn ahead. Along with his outlook on the economy, Hatzius sees the Federal Reserve waiting until the fourth quarter of 2024 before cutting rates . That would put the U.S. central bank near the back of the pack, with Goldman expecting others to start cutting earlier. However, Hatzius noted that "risks are tilted to earlier cuts," particularly if inflation should fall faster than expected — or if the economy weakens.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, We've, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Reserve Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Europe, Wall
High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta
The U.S. is expected to outpace other developed markets again with estimated growth of 2.1%, Goldman said. Goldman noted global manufacturing activity has been weighed down by a weaker-than-expected rebound in Chinese manufacturing and the European energy crisis, as well as an inventory cycle that had to correct for overbuilding last year. S&P Global's gauge of worldwide manufacturing activity came in at 49.1 in September. Additionally, China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October from 50.6 in September, marking the first contraction since July. Manufacturing activity should recover somewhat in 2024 from a subdued 2023 pace, Goldman economists led by chief economist Jan Hatzius said, especially as "spending patterns normalize, gas-intensive European production finds a trough, and inventories-to-GDP ratios stabilize."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jerome Powell, Jan Hatzius, China's Organizations: Bloomberg, U.S . Federal Reserve, Global, Goldman Sachs, P Global, PMI Locations: York, U.S, Japan
Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, , , Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S
Washington may be able to avoid a government shutdown by the upcoming Friday deadline, but that doesn't mean Congress — or the markets — are quite in the clear. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Tuesday that he expects enough lawmakers on both sides to pass his two-step "laddered" continuing resolution. The continuing resolution plan would extend federal funding for some government agencies until mid-January, while other agencies would be funded through early February. The House is expected to vote on the continuing resolution around 4:30 p.m. That doesn't mean that you're not going to have the showdown — it just means that this is the prologue," Salisbury said.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Israel, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Benjamin Salisbury, Salisbury, Brian Gardner, Gardner, It's, Eric Diton, Diton, We've, we've, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chelsey Cox Organizations: Freedom Caucus, Democrats, Wall, Government shutdowns, Wealth Alliance, Moody's, Service Locations: Washington, Salisbury
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